Anyone following the polls should not have been surprised by Barack Obama’s blowout in the election. Most polling sites were accurate in their state by state predictions enough to get one state wrong. Do polls accurately relay how the voting public will vote or does it instead have a large influence on undecided voters?
We believe here at Illclectics that it polls do have a factor in undecided votes because of bandwagon mentality that was so prevalent in the campaigns. So much of the candidates campaigning related to a showing which candidate could support a movement behind him. Obama and McCain both had campaign slogans varying the word change. Palin talked about the real American parts of this country. While both talked about their experience in bipartisanship, both set up their campaigns as a counter to failed policy of the other.
We believe that this set up the influential undecided voter to make a decision as to which side did they want to stand. Also, we believe that people consciously or not, tend to want to fall in line with the popular bandwagon. With this being the first time no incumbent has run for president since 1928, it has allowed this campaign to be designated differently from other presidential elections.
Until October, Obama and McCain remained within points of each other in polled independent voters through Gallup. We believe that when it became clear that in the final month of the campaign Obama had a solid lead that would finish strong, many independent voters could not help but be swayed by constant national news about a seemingly inevitable Obama election.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109042/Candidate-Support-Political-Party.aspx
We will now look at some survey data from the TGI Brasil study. During 2003, 8,907 persons between the ages of 20 to 64 years old were interviewed for this study. When presented with the statement, “I always vote for the probable winner in an election”, 13% said that they agree.
http://www.zonalatina.com/Zldata345.htm
“Sheen is one of the 5 percent of American voters who are either undecided or could change their mind before Election Day.”




